I imagine that one of the major problems with any factors related to the 'it's the economy, stoopid' school of electoral thought is that in truth 'it's each individual's or family's perception of the economy, stoopid'.

All kinds of elements have been decoupled from their natural 'rising tide lifts all boats' cycle, by a series of black swan events globally (even ships getting jammed in the Suez Canal!), but increasingly, I would suggest, rising inequality. Which means that a good Dow or GDP print may mean that 'the economy's booming' for some, but more and more, even in the middle class, aren't feeling that in their paycheck, while they are seeing the impact of inflationary events (almost entirely outside the control of the incumbent administration anyway - but that's another story) at the grocery store and gas station.

Is there a recession? If I've just lost my job, or simply had overtime cut, and my shopping cart costs 'twice what it did' (perception, not reality), then yes, for me there is a recession, no matter what the econometricians might say.